The Miami Heat are expected to see their season end on Monday night. Oddsmakers have made the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers an 8.5-point favorite for Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round series.
The Cavs are a robust -375 at DraftKings, which means you would have to wager $375 to win $100 if you’re backing them to break out the brooms in South Florida without concern for the point spread. Backing Miami to pull the outright upset pays +300, so if the Heat are able to avoid elimination, they would triple your investment if you ignore what you saw two days prior and ride them in Game 4.
After being a 12/12.5-point favorite for the first two contests, the Cavs crushed Miami 124-87 in Game 3 despite laying a series-low 5.5 points.The Game 4 total opened at 210.5 and has moved into the 211-211.5 range.
For the season, the Cavs finished 30-11 outside Cleveland, the NBA’s third-best away record behind the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder. The defending champs split their first two playoff games in Orlando, while OKC swept Memphis by posting tight wins in Games 3 and 4, rallying past the Grizzlies in the first of those after Ja Morant left with a hip injury just before halftime.
Miami was the only team to reach the playoffs despite finishing under .500 at home, finishing 19-22 at Kaseya Center. The Heat haven’t won at Pat Riley Court since April 7 and are just 4-11 over their last 15 home games following Saturday afternoon’s debacle.
Including the first three games of this series, Cleveland has been favored in all six meetings against Miami this season, and is 5-1 straight up, but just 3-3 against the spread.
The ‘over’ has prevailed on four of six occasions, and lost for the first time in this series in Game 3 due to Miami not being able to keep pace. The Heat are now averaging just 99.7 points in the series, while Cleveland is up at 122.0.
The Game 3 total closed in the 211.5-213 range depending on the sportsbook. The ‘under’ prevailed thanks in part to Cavs rookie Jaylon Tyson missing a dunk in the final minute. Miami rookie Pelle Larsson hit a 3-pointer for the final points.
Game 4 projected point totals, courtesy of DraftKings, again have Cavs guard Donovan Mitchell saddled with the highest scoring total on the board at 26.5. Mitchell had the highest number (26.5) for Game 2 and shared that with Miami guard Tyler Herro at 25.5. The market expects a bounce-back from Mitchell, who scored just 13 on 4-for-14 shooting in his team’s rout.
Herro remains Miami’s most likely top scorer, but his number has dipped to 24.5. Bam Adebayo (19.5), Andrew Wiggins (15.5), Davion Mitchell (12.5), Nikola Jovic (7.5), Duncan Robinson (6.5), Kel’el Ware (5.5), Haywood Highsmith (5.5) are available.
Heat guard Alec Burks has been pulled off the board for a second straight game. Jovic is a new addition to the market, having played 44 combined minutes over the last two games. He scored 11 in Game 2, but just three points in Game 3 on 1-for-7 shooting.
Tony Mejia is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI. He can be reached at tnyce1414@gmail.com
